{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "title": "CMMC 20X Reform Analysis — Seven Policy Paths × Five Headline Outcomes",
  "description": "A governed, machine-readable summary of five modeled outcomes for seven CMMC policy paths through 2049.",
  "canonicalUrl": "https://cmmc20x.com/analysis",
  "methodologyUrl": "https://cmmc20x.com/analysis/methodology",
  "publicationDate": "2026-08-14",
  "reviewDate": "2026-08-14",
  "generatedFrom": "src/data/analysis-results.json",
  "model": {
    "commit": "bf91444e3fcc",
    "clean": true,
    "assumptionSet": "graduated-verification-2026-08-13.v1",
    "sourceSet": "cmmc20x-rfi-v8.5-and-primary-sources-2026-08-13",
    "primaryRunsPerPolicyPath": 100,
    "pairedExogenousSeeds": true,
    "horizon": {
      "start": "2026-07-20",
      "end": "2049-12-16"
    }
  },
  "interpretationBoundary": {
    "type": "conditional-model-not-forecast",
    "statement": "Conditional systems analysis, not prediction. Compare mechanisms, direction, timing, and switch points; do not interpret third-significant-figure precision or infer empirical AI performance from central assumptions."
  },
  "fieldDefinitions": {
    "currentAssurance2049": {
      "label": "Current assurance",
      "unit": "share of active organizations",
      "statistic": "median at the end of 2049",
      "definition": "Share of active organizations with current evidence and the review required by their assigned verification route."
    },
    "suppliersLostThrough2049": {
      "label": "Suppliers lost",
      "unit": "cumulative share of the modeled active DIB",
      "statistic": "median through the end of 2049",
      "definition": "Cumulative modeled DIB attrition under the policy option through 2049."
    },
    "peakReviewBacklog": {
      "label": "Peak review backlog",
      "unit": "organizations",
      "statistic": "maximum annual median, 2026–2049",
      "definition": "Largest median total review queue across classic, enhanced, and Government review work."
    },
    "controlExposureTarget": {
      "label": "Exposure target reached",
      "unit": "YYYY-MM or null",
      "statistic": "median first sustained month among runs that reach the target",
      "definition": "First month beginning 12 consecutive months at or below the modeled control-exposure target of 0.35. The reach rate states the share of runs that attain it."
    },
    "contractorBurden2049": {
      "label": "Contractor burden",
      "unit": "USD millions per year",
      "statistic": "median at the end of 2049",
      "definition": "Annual modeled implementation, sustainment, evidence, and route-specific verification resource burden; not vendor revenue."
    }
  },
  "policyPaths": [
    {
      "id": "current-suspension",
      "label": "Continue the current suspension",
      "shortLabel": "Current suspension",
      "headline": "Suspension buys time; it does not build a verification steady state.",
      "outcomes": {
        "currentAssurance2049": 0.6537,
        "suppliersLostThrough2049": 0,
        "peakReviewBacklog": 16857.6098,
        "controlExposureTarget": {
          "medianFirstSustainedMonth": "2044-02",
          "runReachRate": 0.87,
          "threshold": 0.35,
          "persistenceMonths": 12
        },
        "contractorBurden2049": 1744.8199
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "reopen-unchanged",
      "label": "Reopen without structural reform",
      "shortLabel": "Reopen unchanged",
      "headline": "The backlog clears by losing suppliers, not by fixing the transport delay.",
      "outcomes": {
        "currentAssurance2049": 0.9682,
        "suppliersLostThrough2049": 0.3641,
        "peakReviewBacklog": 32607.2335,
        "controlExposureTarget": {
          "medianFirstSustainedMonth": "2031-02",
          "runReachRate": 1,
          "threshold": 0.35,
          "persistenceMonths": 12
        },
        "contractorBurden2049": 1437.5677
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "capacity-expansion",
      "label": "Expand assessor capacity before reopening",
      "shortLabel": "Capacity expansion",
      "headline": "Capacity helps after its pipeline delay; it cannot repair scope or supplier economics.",
      "outcomes": {
        "currentAssurance2049": 0.9688,
        "suppliersLostThrough2049": 0.1833,
        "peakReviewBacklog": 27384.3892,
        "controlExposureTarget": {
          "medianFirstSustainedMonth": "2031-09",
          "runReachRate": 1,
          "threshold": 0.35,
          "persistenceMonths": 12
        },
        "contractorBurden2049": 1852.0013
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "evidence-modernization",
      "label": "Modernize evidence and accountable review",
      "shortLabel": "Evidence modernization",
      "headline": "Structured evidence removes repeat work; it does not create a different route.",
      "outcomes": {
        "currentAssurance2049": 0.9655,
        "suppliersLostThrough2049": 0.1312,
        "peakReviewBacklog": 22854.7511,
        "controlExposureTarget": {
          "medianFirstSustainedMonth": "2033-08",
          "runReachRate": 1,
          "threshold": 0.35,
          "persistenceMonths": 12
        },
        "contractorBurden2049": 1715.1346
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "graduated-verification",
      "label": "Adopt graduated Level 2 verification",
      "shortLabel": "Graduated verification",
      "headline": "Graduated verification moves the bottleneck—and makes the new one measurable.",
      "outcomes": {
        "currentAssurance2049": 0.8982,
        "suppliersLostThrough2049": 0.03,
        "peakReviewBacklog": 11843.4565,
        "controlExposureTarget": {
          "medianFirstSustainedMonth": "2034-02",
          "runReachRate": 1,
          "threshold": 0.35,
          "persistenceMonths": 12
        },
        "contractorBurden2049": 1615.6928
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "coordinated-reform",
      "label": "Coordinate scope, timing, capacity, burden, and verification",
      "shortLabel": "Coordinated reform",
      "headline": "The robust result comes from ordering the operating system, not finding one silver bullet.",
      "outcomes": {
        "currentAssurance2049": 0.9105,
        "suppliersLostThrough2049": 0.0105,
        "peakReviewBacklog": 7353.6507,
        "controlExposureTarget": {
          "medianFirstSustainedMonth": "2032-12",
          "runReachRate": 1,
          "threshold": 0.35,
          "persistenceMonths": 12
        },
        "contractorBurden2049": 1075.418
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "program-rescission",
      "label": "Rescind the CMMC program without a successor",
      "shortLabel": "Program rescission",
      "headline": "Rescission lowers mandate burden, not control exposure by administrative act.",
      "outcomes": {
        "currentAssurance2049": 0,
        "suppliersLostThrough2049": 0,
        "peakReviewBacklog": 4542.6935,
        "controlExposureTarget": {
          "medianFirstSustainedMonth": null,
          "runReachRate": 0,
          "threshold": 0.35,
          "persistenceMonths": 12
        },
        "contractorBurden2049": 531.6873
      }
    }
  ]
}